❯ FORECAST METHOD
Will Codex reset today?
The number on Codex Resets estimates the chance of an observed global reset event over the next 24 or 48 hours. It is a forecast, not a claim that a reset has been scheduled or confirmed.
Is there a confirmed reset today?
A model percentage cannot answer that. Check the live dashboard for the latest verified reset and any official announcement, or open the dated reset history and original sources. A promise that a reset will arrive is different from a completion announcement.
For your own allowance, check Codex Settings → Usage. A banked reset is saved for manual use and does not mean your current usage has automatically refilled.
History supplies the baseline
The model starts from verified past reset episodes and the spacing between them. A probability curve then describes how likely another broad event appears within a future time window. It does not use a user’s personal account data.
Read the number first, then the time
The prominent 24- or 48-hour number is the overall forecast. The timing chart does not introduce another percentage: its highlighted three-hour block simply marks the likeliest time inside that selected window. When a direct official time is available, that time takes over the highlight.
Indicators are not a second probability
The radar lists public posting, official service status, and the historical cooldown position separately; it does not average them into another score. Ordinary posting is not a reset hint. An explicit official schedule is shown separately and never increases the model percentage.
Why a probability may be unavailable
When the wait exceeds the longest interval in verified history, the dashboard withholds the percentage and estimated peak window. More waiting alone is not evidence that a reset is imminent. Direct official schedules remain separate, and your personal timer is available in Codex Settings → Usage.
How accurate is the forecast?
Predictive accuracy is not yet established. A displayed 70% is an estimate for a future window, not a claim that 70% of previous predictions were correct. We evaluate predictions recorded before their outcomes and compare them with simple baselines; the limited history does not yet justify an accuracy claim.
- A higher probability is not a promise that a reset will happen.
- A low probability does not rule out an unexpected change.
- Only a confirmed event can enter public history. An optional advance email is sent once per cycle when the model estimate reaches 70% or an official reset is scheduled within 24 hours. A separate notice can follow at the stated time; neither confirms a reset.